A brief statement before we begin, I highly condemn Russian invasion in Ukraine and fully support Ukraine in defending its territory. This war is causing immesearuable amount of human suffering and tradegy to the people of Ukraine and I hope this war is stopped soon. In the newsletter, I try to only focus on purely tactical and military related topics.
TLDR - Update on current war situation
Ukraine continues its fierce resistance to Russian invasion. Russian tactics of Bliztkreig have failed and they have changed their strategy to Soviet times - moving slowly and throwing bodies at the problem.
Ukrainian mobile ambush units continue to be highly effective in destroying Russian supply lines and slowing down the movements of the army. In the next 72-96hrs, Russia will push heavily into Sumy and Chernihiv regions to secure their supply routes.
Since my post has reached the length limit. I’m splitting the issue into two (the second one will follow in the coming week). In this issue, I’m covering
Russian army fails
Preparations
Mud
Corruption
Communications
Ukrainian Spoils of War
First, a quick recap of some statements from my previous issues that have turned out as I predicted.
Excerpts from Issue #7
There have been doubts about whether the Russian army can really fight a battle and if the battle breaks out will is the Russian army combat ready? The videos of Russian tanks getting stuck in the mud are raising doubts.
Invade - This option will give him a win internally however Russian business and economy will suffer substantial losses. US and EU have threatened to cut off Russia from the SWIFT banking system. This would be a lethal blow to the economy. The ruble already is losing a lot of value, the only thing sustaining the Russian economy is Chinese gas deals but that makes Russia dependent on China where China is not dependent on Russia. Another major consequence will be that the West will for sure start arming the Ukrainian army or even start positioning forces in Ukraine.
Lack of Preparations
Russian military seems to be unplanned and unorganized in this attack on Ukraine. A lot of their equipment is in a bad state. It’s quite evident when the tanks or military vehicles are captured. Problems such as no fuel badly maintained vehicles and expired food ration. This leads me to believe that the Russian army wasn’t expecting and preparing for a full-scale invasion and the battalions were also shocked by the orders to march to Ukraine. With a lot of new conscripts abandoning their vehicles or surrendering.
Slinging Mud
Bad maintenance is further aggravated by the fact that Russian chose the WORST time of the year to attack Ukraine.
It’s the mud season and roads are wet and full of thick mud. This is known as Rasputitsa in Russian.
Rasputitsa is a Russian term for two seasons of the year, spring and autumn, when travel on unpaved roads or across country becomes difficult, owing to muddy conditions from rain or melting snow. "Rasputitsa" also refers to road conditions during both periods.
This mud is so far playing a big role in the slow movement of the Russian forces and to the advantage of the Ukrainian army. There are countless photos of Russian tanks, missile systems, logistics, SAMS getting stuck in the mud. This mud has also caused a huge traffic jam leading to a 40-60km long convoy stuck outside of Kyiv. This convoy is a sitting duck to any artillery or air attack and will be destroyed the day Ukraine gets proper artillery or attack jets.
"There's a massive logistical failure to provide fuel, food, spare parts and tyres... they got stuck in the mud in a way that makes it difficult to move vehicles out," General Sir Richard Barrons, former Commander of the UK Joint Forces Command, told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme. - Source
The question is WHY did Putin not attack earlier and chose this time? If they would have attacked in Dec it would have avoided some of these problems. Apparently, the answer is China. China asked Russia not to attack until the Winter Olympics in China were concluded. I think that it’s true. Since Putin is and was overconfident that Ukraine won’t resist and Russia would be able to take the whole country within a span of 15 days. For me the real question is actually, why did Putin listen to China?
he considers China a close friend and decided to wait? Unlikely
or Putin afraid of China and didn’t want to annoy the only partner that might be willing to buy their oil once the sanctions kick in? This option seems more likely.
Which again highlights the precarious state of affairs for Putin and the Russian economy. Whatever be the reason, this mistake has cost Russia a lot both in terms of equipment and reputation.
To make matters worse, new reports are suggesting that Ukrainian have opened the dams and flooded the area making it even worse for heavy equipment to pass.
Rotten to the core
Corruption in the Russian military puts the corruption in poor and developing countries to absolute shame.
Widespread Corruption in the Russian army is rife with non-functioning equipment to expired food ration,to lack of tires or bad quality of tires, to reprehensibly bad maintenance of expensive systems.
In one recording, a man who appears to be a commander shouts at his subordinates for failing to activate a piece of equipment, which may be a portable anti-aircraft device.
“[indistinguishable] is not ready yet. There is not enough voltage,” says one Russian speaker.
“Oh go f*** yourselves you f***ing sheep! You are standing there for three f***ing days, copy.”
“Yes,” comes a reply.
“What’s motherf****ing yes? When is it going to be f***** ready, this is a s***show.” - Source
Shooting yourself in the foot
Secure communications are essentials to any army. Russian secure communication uses 3g and 4g networks. And guess what the first thing, Russian artillery did, destroyed the 3g and 4g cellular towers. This has left the Russian army without any means of secure communication and they are forced to use the local sim cards and non-secure modes of communication.
And this has resulted in Russia losing not one BUT three military generals! Since Ukrainians are intercepting these communications and targeting the high-value assets.
Losing one general is a big thing, losing three within 17 days is devastating.
Spoils of War
What’s better than seeing your enemy run away?
Findings your enemies’ expensive equipment abandoned.
What’s better than?
Being able to tug it home.
What’s better than that?
Your govt says you can keep it.
What’s better than that?
It’s tax-free!!
Here is the text from Ukraine's National Agency for the Protection against Corruption.
"Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland! There is no need to declare the captured Russian tanks and other equipment, because the cost of this ... does not exceed 100 living wages (UAH 248,100)," NAPC's press service said.
You would say how can a $5 Million tank be worth ~$8k (UAH 248k) ? They go on to explain-
"Speaking by the letter of the law, combat trophies are not subject to reflection in the declaration for the following reasons: they were acquired not as a result of the conclusion of any type of transaction, but in connection with the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022 against the independent and sovereign Ukrainian state as a continuation the insidious attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine launched in 2014. Thanks to the courage and victory of the defenders of the Ukrainian state, enemy military equipment usually comes to you already destroyed and disabled, which makes it impossible to evaluate it in accordance with the law On the valuation of property, property rights and professional valuation activities in Ukraine. Therefore, it is also impossible to find out how much such property costs,” the NACP said.
The last line is the most important “Therefore, it is also impossible to find out how much such property costs”.
Happy Hunting to the Ukrainian farmers and people!
Here are some war trophies footage
$25 Million TOR
$5 Million tanks
That’s all folks.