Last attempt to save Dictatorship?
Issue #6
This is a special edition on the Russia and Ukraine conflict.
This is the battle of democracy vs dictatorship, diplomacy vs force, peace vs intimidation, west vs east, capitalism vs communist, and above all a personal battle of a dictator to remain in power and news.
TLDR:
Putin is scared of democracies, the uprisings against dictators around him, and the fear of internal revolt from the likes of Navalny. This desperate and dangerous attempt is to buy him another 20 years in power while undermining the democratic systems around the world.
Putin lives in the remains of the USSR trying to revive the glory days like the last rulers of all declining empires. Putin is trying to rescue Russia, a declining economic and political power, and keep it relevant in today's time. Fun fact: Russian GDP is almost the same size as South Korea and Spain, a mere 11th place in the world for the once-powerful empire.
The Begining
Like all good stories, this one also starts with the declining empire and ambitious protege. Vladimir Putin grew up in USSR and grew up with the idols of communism and joined KGB in 1975. Being posted as an undercover agent in Dresden Germany, he found himself in the middle of the collapse of the Soviet Union and East Germany. The words “Moscow is silent" that were said during the frantic times were etched in his memory forever. He came back to Russia and took advantage of that fall to rise up to power (become a billionaire) and eventually the president of Russia.
As the world watched all the states of the USSR becoming independent, Putin took solace in the fact that ideas of the Soviets and the culture will continue to exist and grow in these nations. And by use of proxy and loyalist of the Soviet Union, he would largely be able to control these nations.
However, at the beginning of the new century, things started to change. His trust was broken when the western Soviet nations such as Latvia and Lithuania joined the EU and signed with NATO effectively denouncing the Soviet regimes and culture.
Further, he saw these breakaway nations trying to get rid of their Soviet past by removing the Russian language from the school curriculum and trying to promote their Native languages. Which was directly in conflict with the Soviet principles of uniformity and the elevation of Russian as a global language.
The era of uprising and people - 2010
As the new decade kicked in and the internet platforms became the 5th estate, capable of understanding and voicing the people's desires wants, and views. People living in dictatorships across the world started using these platforms to voice their concerns. Thereby giving rise to multiple uprisings across the world and contributing to the fall of multiple dictators.
Dictators who have lost power in the last twenty years:
In the midst of Middle East uprisings, a protest against the corrupt election system hit Russia and continued till 2013. As Putin sitting in his marble castle saw this happening, he started to become concerned and started to curtail internet freedom across Russia. However this was not enough, he needed to save his proxy empires as well.
Over in Ukraine in 2014 the people upturned the pro-Russian, oligarch friendly, and hyper corrupt government. The president was impeached and he ran away to Russia leaving the few soviet loyalists behind. This was a wake-up call for Putin and now for the first time, he was left in a situation that he didn't like. He had no proxy power in Ukraine ( besides some friends like Medvedchuk).
This was scary for Putin, he suddenly woke up to the possibility of his enemies being uncomfortably close to him. One look at the map and it scared him. Nato's eastward expansion and with no pro-Russian govt in power in Ukraine, he felt exposed and weak.
He had to take action to protect his borders and strategic assets. He was forced to use the military and mitigate some risks. Number 1 on the agenda Crimea.
If you look at Crimea on the map, you'll understand why it's important for Russia as a military base and strategic port. Without the proxy control of Ukraine and Crimea, Russia would be cut off from its most important assets. Plus Sevastopol had to be in Russian control, the city that is called “the city of Russian glory” as known in Russia.
Therefore, he had to annex it!
But there were problems brewing internally as well. Even though the Snow revolution was stopped. He still had to safeguard his reputation internally and fight against Navalny. The last time Navalny was allowed to run he got 30% of the votes in the Moscow election which is really substantial number. After that, he wasn't allowed to run officially.
The Plan
The annexation of Crimea helped but it didn't solve the problem that Putin felt surrounded his enemies and losing ground in ex-soviet nations.
He had to undermine his enemies, he had to stop the uprisings around him, he had to fight the internal competition, he had to stop democracy coming to Russia he had to save the last standing bastion of Soviet power from populism. The success in the next years would have strengthened his power and sealed him in history books. He was going to save the Soviet Union from the grabs of populism and capitalism.
And so a plan was made:
Get rid of internal enemies
Undermine the biggest democracy the USA
Become close to the other aggressive communist capitalistic power China
Try And destabilize the EU
Secure his borders through proxies ( sanctions from 2014 had caused a lot of damage to the Russian economy and he couldn't afford another hit)
And as you know he succeeded in a lot of these objectives - the poisoning of Navalny, USA Trump election interference, china Russia gas deals, selling water and trees to china ( even though these deals basically sold Russia to the Chinese still Putin managed to remove dependency on West), and last influencing Brexit.
But not everything was a success, Navalny survived and released a condemning video on Putin's personal wealth, Ukraine continued its shift toward the West and increased trade with the EU while cutting reliance on Russia and lastly the Ukrainian Orthodox church split from Russian breaking the 300 year old tradition. Thereby marking a symbolic gesture of Ukraine moving out of Russia’s shadows.
Alas, the most important goal was to secure the border around him. Putin stated with Belarus as he helped the dictator remain in power. But Ukraine was difficult and complicated so he took the help of his Medvedchuk and Putin also happens to be the godfather of Medvedchuk’s daughter. He runs the largest pro-Russian party that is the main opposition party right now. Using his power and media coverage, Medvedchuk started polarising the Ukrainians and peddling propaganda. Medvedchuk's job was to counter the westward alliance of President Zelensky and convince the Ukrainian population not to ally with the West. That was going well until the president of Ukraine arrested Medevuchuk on charges of treason and blocked his three main propaganda channels funneling the pro-Russian agenda.
And this is where everything gets complicated.
The Buildup
The arrest of Medvedchuk is the fall of the last standing Putin ally in Ukraine. Without him and his channels, Putin stands to lose even more control over the nation that literally stands between Russia and NATO forces. Add to that Zelensky’s inclination towards the West and moves to join NATO you had a real problem brewing.
His approach in Ukraine of proxy power had failed and this time he needed a decisive solution. Putin couldn’t allow Ukraine to join NATO or even think of this possibility, the Russian population couldn’t think of a major ex-Soviet nation joining NATO and NATO bases getting established right next to Russian-Ukrainian borders.
And hence another plan was made to take control of the East Ukraine regions, to stop Ukraine from joining NATO, to deter the west from moving eastward, and to importantly assert Russia's power against a weak west, and to reinstate the image of Putin as global leader and strongman to help him win the Russian 2024 election.
The Complication
Putin thought he could get a quick win here and there were not many risks. The US was retreating from Afghanistan, the EU was struggling with Covid and recessions, Germany was going through a govt change. With the Russian troops’ buildup, Putin hoped to
Stop Ukraine from joining NATO
Assert power in the weak West
Gain popular support internally
However, Putin has been caught surprised by the response of the West. Especially the USA’s response, the American aggressive Information war escalated the crisis and brought it to everyone’s attention. EU Union and Germany who were hesitant to take a stand have been forced by political pressure. US, UK, and EU now at least talk about strict consequences in case the invasion happens.
There have been doubts about whether the Russian army can really fight a battle and if the battle breaks out will is the Russian army combat ready? The videos of Russian tanks getting stuck in the mud are raising doubts.
Not, as some have suggested, because the ground will soon thaw and the tanks he has sent to Russia’s border with Ukraine risk getting bogged down in the mud. Nor because the regime elite might start losing their nerve at the threat of Western sanctions and stage a palace coup. But because, despite all of the military force Putin has mustered - Source
Putin is caught between two main options and one getaway
Invade - This option will give him a win internally however Russian business and economy will suffer substantial losses. US and EU have threatened to cut off Russia from the SWIFT banking system. This would be a lethal blow to the economy. The ruble already is losing a lot of value, the only thing sustaining the Russian economy is Chinese gas deals but that makes Russia dependent on China where China is not dependent on Russia. Another major consequence will be that the West will for sure start arming the Ukrainian army or even start positioning forces in Ukraine.
Retreat - This option is unknown to Mr. Putin and even though we would have considered it before and gone for this option had there not been so much political pressure. Currently, moving back his troops and deescalating will be the end of Putin political career in Russia.
Recognize the breakaway regions - this is a getaway option. And currently the best bet, in my opinion, is to end the standoff. Putin yesterday did exactly this. This option provides for an immediate win for Putin and avoids direct confrontation. For sure this will result in sanctions from the West but that is better losing substantial GDP and possibly a military embarrassment. This option will lead this conflict into the category of already existing disputes around the world - Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, India-China, Armenia-Azerbaijan. However, the most important point is that the aggression should stop at only the recognition of these states and nothing more.
However, there are a lot of eyes on this conflict and the response of the West on this conflict will be closely monitored and judged. If the West fails to respond appropriately (till now their response is weak), there are bigger questions lingering in the background since the West wants to avoid a war.
If the West allows Russia to take over Ukrainian regions then-
Will NATO not intervene when China tries to take over Taiwan?
When Russia moves to claim more territory in ex-soviet blocks?
Can any nation take over territory without any major consequences?
These open questions are a pandora’s box that everyone wants to avoid. The true intentions of Putin are very well sumped up in this article from Atlantic.
He wants to destabilize Ukraine, frighten Ukraine. He wants Ukrainian democracy to fail. He wants the Ukrainian economy to collapse. He wants foreign investors to flee. He wants his neighbors—in Belarus, Kazakhstan, even Poland and Hungary—to doubt whether democracy will ever be viable, in the longer term, in their countries too. Farther abroad, he wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail.